Global regularity and local variability of the space-temporal patterns of COVID 19 in Aragón (Spain)
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Abstract
Data from confirmed COVID-19 cases in Aragón (Spain), aggregated in 123 Basic Health Areas over 50 consecutive weeks, were used to identify, measure and characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of the pandemic. This was done using spatial and temporal autocorrelation measures, obtained from the data through the application of spatial statistics procedures (global and local Moran's I). The spatial and temporal incidence of COVID-19 in Aragón was neither homogeneous nor random, showing a certain overall regularity and notable local variability. This model can be explained by a process of spatial diffusion modified by long-distance contagions and restricted by measures implemented to control the pandemic. The information obtained is of great utility for public health decision-making relating to the organisation of healthcare resources and future measures to prevent and control the pandemic.
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